At midnight on February 27, the guns fell silent in Syria—at least temporarily. With numerous allegations of breaches beginning to surface, Syria’s ceasefire is already on shaky ground. This cessation of hostilities, as it is formally called, followed two weeks of intensive negotiations between the United States and Russia. Just before the clock struck twelve, their efforts reached fruition when the UN Security Council unanimously approved resolution 2268, endorsing a Russian-American agreement from February 22 and demanding that Syrian and international actors comply.

But will they? And with what exactly do they need to comply? In addition to the disparate motivations of outside actors, the complex calculations and relations among Syrian jihadi and non-jihadi rebel factions make this a perilous process.