Location Ukraine Ukraine

Odessa and Saakashvili

Today Odessa is the main testing ground in which Kiev generates new pacify practice for the southeastern Ukraine. The city on the Black Sea was not accidentally chosen for this purpose. Odessa and nearest towns form the port complex, which serves as a sea gate of Ukraine.
This port complex is important for the survival of the regime in Kiev. Marine communications are the only one guaranteed export and import channel for the Ukrainian economy. This is indicated by stable growth in cargo handling in the ports of Odessa region during last two years. Alternative ways for development of external economic relations are restricted or completely blocked. The borders with the EU are closed with tight visa regime, Kiev distanced from Russia by itself, a wayside appeared in Donbas and in the Crimea the border is under control of forces led by euromaidan activists like Chubarov and Dzhemilev.
Odessa ports are very important for the United States too. It is the only channel of direct interaction between the United States and Ukraine. Odessa ports are important at the level of the economy, the military presence, diplomacy and politics. Port infrastructure becomes a node that can ensure the supply of arms and an opportunity for intervention. In a particular Odessa case, control of the Odessa ports provides control over the western and southern coast of the Black Sea from NATO (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey). Russia expanded its presence in the Black Sea due to the control over Crimea, but it still has the worst port infrastructure than NATO.
Therefore, the United States specifically put Saakashvili at the head of the Odessa area to take full control of the region. In carrying out the task, Saakashvili acts as an international raider. He purposefully takes control over all key institutions in the region. He covers this activity with bright and colorful political spectacle.
However, Odessa rejects Saakashvili and his team. At local elections in October 2015 Saakashvili has tried to impose his own candidate in the Odessa mayor. He supported the candidacy of Alexander Borovik, who had never lived in Odessa and had no relation to the city. But Odessa citizens preferred well known local politician Trukhanov who got an absolute majority votes at the election. Saakashvili’s attempt to establish full control of Odessa failed. His team very often appears in corruption scandals (the happen more and more frequently), its isolation from society increases. Saakashvili fails to take full control of Odessa.
He appeared in a difficult situation, it is very similar to the situation in Georgia in 2006-2007. Mass public support expired, corruption schemes float, most of the appointees were incompetent corrupt officials, big business invests in opposition. Ruling in Georgia he tried to correct the situation by small victorious war and attacked South Ossetia.
War — it is a favorite political technology of all dictators. Euromaidan politicians have used it previous year, declaring the so-called anti-terrorist operation in the Donbas, and achieved a significant strengthening of its authority.
Saakashvili is not the head of a state. Only a regional police is subordinated to him from all law enforcement agencies. But today the Interior Ministry troops and special units armed with no worse than the army, plus there are semi-legal euromaidan militias — so-called volunteer battalions. These forces are enough to attack a weak enemy. This enemy exists not far from Odessa – it is Transnistria.
Saakashvili has also personal reasons for the escalation of relations with Transnistria. He wants to take revenge for the defeat from Russia in South Ossetia. In addition, Saakashvili can not go back to Georgia, where he is accused of serious crimes. Therefore, Odessa is the only place in the Black Sea, where he can engage in political activity. If he does not fulfill the tasks set by the United States, he will have to say goodbye forever to the Black Sea region.
Therefore, the only solution that can save Saakashvili and to concentrate dictatorial powers — this is a war. No other scenario does guarantee the preservation of his power. Saakashvili takes personal control of ports and border, or his career is over, he goes on lecturing work in the United States and Canada.


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